Counterintutive modelling for probabilistic reasoning

Speaker:

Signe Malm, IND 

Abstract:

Students’ epistemological obstacles in reasoning about probability in primary and lower secondary school appear to be remarkably consistent. This PhD project investigates how students can be supported in developing reasoning about randomness and probability through an early encounter with these notions. The study focuses on task design and a counterintuitive modelling task in probability is suggested. From a theoretical perspective, the project presents and exemplifies foundational hypotheses concerning students’ early engagement with probability. Central to these hypotheses is the idea that students on the middle school level can productively engage with and reason about counterintuitive probabilistic modelling without reliance on formal calculations. By foregrounding qualitative reasoning and modelling rather than computation, the presentation explores how early experiences with probability may challenge intuitive epistemological obstacles and support the development of more robust probabilistic reasoning